The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted key oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the possible to toss governments' long-term planning into mayhem.
Whatever the reality, rising long term worldwide needs seem particular to overtake production in the next decade, particularly given the high and increasing expenses of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a scenario, additives and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising rates drive this technology to the leading edge, one of the richest potential production locations has been absolutely neglected by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and fairly little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mainly inhibited their capability to cash in on increasing international energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their increased need to produce winter season electrical power has led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these three downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those hardy investors willing to bank on the future, especially as a plant indigenous to the region has currently proven itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in commercial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to experiment with flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional efficiency ability and prospective industrial viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another bonus of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly great animals feed prospect that is recently getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well versus weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three centuries to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a wide variety of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can produce problems in germination to attain an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's capacity might permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the country's efforts at agrarian reform considering that accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later it had actually become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.
Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of options Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots every year, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up roughly 60 percent of the country's tough currency income.
Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet planners to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's 2 main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient irrigation canals, leading to the significant shrinkage of the rivers' final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has diminished to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.
And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently explained camelina's business design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230."
Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign financial investment. U.S. financiers have the cash and access to the proficiency of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less particular is who will enjoy the benefits of developing it as a feasible concern in Central Asia.
If the current past is anything to pass it is not likely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.
But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American financiers have the academic know-how, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that reduces water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will receive most cautious factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed more rapidly.
And jatropha curcas's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.
